Alex McKenzie wrote:
> Word on campus was that they would look at it today. No announcements
> yet. My gut feeling is that they will close tomorrow sfternoon, since
> now the storm is predicted to most likely hit Buras, LA. UNO tends to
> close early and often to give students/faculty/staff ample preparation
> time.
I've been waiting for word from the administration here at LSUHSC and
for word from Charity. If one school accounces that they are closing,
its likely that all of them are going to close.
> I've been watching this oen for a while and they are admitting that the
> track to FL may be unrealistic, but they're reluctant to shift it for
> some reason.
Its because at this point the don't know and they just had someone on
WWL say that they won't know till early tomorrow morning.
As for the probabilities you posted, they were just updated at 4PM.
The fact that Galveston is now listed is not a good thing cause it just
reinforces that they aren't sure where its going...
Here are the new stats (note the shift west):
000
WTNT74 KNHC 132043
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
24.2N 86.7W 39 X X X 39 ST MARKS FL X X 5 8 13
26.1N 87.6W 9 20 1 X 30 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 8 6 15
28.2N 87.7W X 16 7 2 25 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 10 6 17
MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 X X 2 PENSACOLA FL X 1 13 5 19
MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X 1 14 4 19
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 2 13 5 20
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X 6 12 3 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X 2 12 4 18
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 7 5 13
SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 6 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3
KEY WEST FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W X 2 9 5 16
MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W X 7 13 2 22
FT MYERS FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W X 17 6 1 24
VENICE FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 91W X 7 7 3 17
TAMPA FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 93W X 1 3 4 8
CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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Received on 09/13/04
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