Re: [Nolug] NOLUG meeting this Thursday (16 September, 2004)

Want to see something creepy? The Navy, who has to keep ships afloat,
projects a different path than the National Hurricane Center.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=tau&area=ngp_
namer&tau=060&dtg=2004091312 looks pretty scary for Thurs. morning -
right up the mouth of the Miss. according to their model.
Dave Prentice
prentice@instruction.com

-----Original Message-----
From: Jeremy (mailing list account) <listbox@unix-boy.com>
To: nolug@joeykelly.net <nolug@joeykelly.net>
Date: Monday, September 13, 2004 4:56 PM
Subject: Re: [Nolug] NOLUG meeting this Thursday (16 September, 2004)

>Alex McKenzie wrote:
>
>> Word on campus was that they would look at it today. No
announcements
>> yet. My gut feeling is that they will close tomorrow sfternoon,
since
>> now the storm is predicted to most likely hit Buras, LA. UNO tends
to
>> close early and often to give students/faculty/staff ample
preparation
>> time.
>
>I've been waiting for word from the administration here at LSUHSC and
>for word from Charity. If one school accounces that they are
closing,
>its likely that all of them are going to close.
>
>> I've been watching this oen for a while and they are admitting that
the
>> track to FL may be unrealistic, but they're reluctant to shift it
for
>> some reason.
>
>Its because at this point the don't know and they just had someone on
>WWL say that they won't know till early tomorrow morning.
>
>As for the probabilities you posted, they were just updated at 4PM.
>The fact that Galveston is now listed is not a good thing cause it
just
>reinforces that they aren't sure where its going...
>
>Here are the new stats (note the shift west):
>
>000
>WTNT74 KNHC 132043
>SPFAT4
>HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
>NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
>5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
>
>PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
>PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
>
>AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
>LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST
>
>CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
>OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
>
>LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
>
>24.2N 86.7W 39 X X X 39 ST MARKS FL X X 5 8 13
>26.1N 87.6W 9 20 1 X 30 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 8 6 15
>28.2N 87.7W X 16 7 2 25 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 10 6 17
>MUHA 230N 824W 1 1 X X 2 PENSACOLA FL X 1 13 5 19
>MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X 1 14 4 19
>FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X 2 13 5 20
>COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X 6 12 3 21
>DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 NEW ORLEANS LA X 2 12 4 18
>JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 7 5 13
>SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 6 7
>CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4
>MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3
>KEY WEST FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 85W X 2 9 5 16
>MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W X 7 13 2 22
>FT MYERS FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W X 17 6 1 24
>VENICE FL X X 2 4 6 GULF 28N 91W X 7 7 3 17
>TAMPA FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 93W X 1 3 4 8
>CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3
>
>COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
>A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
>FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
>B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED
>C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
>D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU
>E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
>X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
>
>FORECASTER STEWART
>___________________
>Nolug mailing list
>nolug@nolug.org

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Received on 09/13/04