Re: [Nolug] NOLUG meeting this Thursday (16 September, 2004)

 From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/132114.shtml?

ONLY THE NOGAPS
MODEL TAKES IVAN OVER NEW ORLEANS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE
MODEL CREATING TOO LARGE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IN TURN
INDUCES A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT HELPS TO KEEP IVAN
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NOGAPS SOLUTION IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF GFS TRACK WHICH IS ALREADY TO THE LEFT OF
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF IVAN.

I still don't understand why the tracking and the probabilities aren't
correlating on NHC.

--
Alex McKenzie     alex@boxchain.com     http://www.boxchain.com
Dave Prentice wrote:
> Want to see something creepy? The Navy, who has to keep ships afloat,
> projects a different path than the National Hurricane Center.
> https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=tau&area=ngp_
> namer&tau=060&dtg=2004091312 looks pretty scary for Thurs. morning -
> right up the mouth of the Miss. according to their model.
> Dave Prentice
> prentice@instruction.com
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jeremy (mailing list account) <listbox@unix-boy.com>
> To: nolug@joeykelly.net <nolug@joeykelly.net>
> Date: Monday, September 13, 2004 4:56 PM
> Subject: Re: [Nolug] NOLUG meeting this Thursday (16 September, 2004)
> 
> 
> 
>>Alex McKenzie wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Word on campus was that they would look at it today.  No
> 
> announcements
> 
>>>yet.  My gut feeling is that they will close tomorrow sfternoon,
> 
> since
> 
>>>now the storm is predicted to most likely hit Buras, LA.  UNO tends
> 
> to
> 
>>>close early and often to give students/faculty/staff ample
> 
> preparation
> 
>>>time.
>>
>>I've been waiting for word from the administration here at LSUHSC and
>>for word from Charity.    If one school accounces that they are
> 
> closing,
> 
>>its likely that all of them are going to close.
>>
>>
>>>I've been watching this oen for a while and they are admitting that
> 
> the
> 
>>>track to FL may be unrealistic, but they're reluctant to shift it
> 
> for
> 
>>>some reason.
>>
>>Its because at this point the don't know and they just had someone on
>>WWL say that they won't know till early tomorrow morning.
>>
>>As for the probabilities you posted, they were just updated at 4PM.
>>The fact that Galveston is now listed is not a good thing cause it
> 
> just
> 
>>reinforces that they aren't sure where its going...
>>
>>Here are the new stats (note the shift west):
>>
>>000
>>WTNT74 KNHC 132043
>>SPFAT4
>>HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  46
>>NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
>>5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
>>
>>PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
>>PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
>>
>>AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
>>LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.9 WEST
>>
>>CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
>>OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
>>
>>LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
>>
>>24.2N  86.7W      39  X  X  X 39   ST MARKS FL        X  X  5  8 13
>>26.1N  87.6W       9 20  1  X 30   APALACHICOLA FL    X  1  8  6 15
>>28.2N  87.7W       X 16  7  2 25   PANAMA CITY FL     X  1 10  6 17
>>MUHA 230N 824W     1  1  X  X  2   PENSACOLA FL       X  1 13  5 19
>>MUAN 219N 850W    99  X  X  X 99   MOBILE AL          X  1 14  4 19
>>FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULFPORT MS        X  2 13  5 20
>>COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3   BURAS LA           X  6 12  3 21
>>DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  2 12  4 18
>>JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  1  7  5 13
>>SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  5  5   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  1  6  7
>>CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  4  4
>>MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  2  2   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
>>KEY WEST FL        X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  2  9  5 16
>>MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  7 13  2 22
>>FT MYERS FL        X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W       X 17  6  1 24
>>VENICE FL          X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  7  7  3 17
>>TAMPA FL           X  X  2  5  7   GULF 28N 93W       X  1  3  4  8
>>CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  3  6  9   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  3  3
>>
>>COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
>>A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
>>FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
>>B FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
>>C FROM  2AM WED TO  2PM WED
>>D FROM  2PM WED TO  2PM THU
>>E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM THU
>>X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
>>
>>FORECASTER STEWART
>>___________________
>>Nolug mailing list
>>nolug@nolug.org
> 
> 
> ___________________
> Nolug mailing list
> nolug@nolug.org
___________________
Nolug mailing list
nolug@nolug.org