I read that about NOGAPS earlier, but as of 7pm the BAMM model has
it making landfall in the same spot as NOGAPS (just east of NO).
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
Just learned that all classes at SLU are cancelled until further notice.
Employees still have to report in the morning... we'll probably work half
a day then go have margarita's for lunch.
ray
On Mon, 13 Sep 2004, Alex McKenzie wrote:
> From http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/132114.shtml?
>
> ONLY THE NOGAPS
> MODEL TAKES IVAN OVER NEW ORLEANS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE
> MODEL CREATING TOO LARGE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IN TURN
> INDUCES A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT HELPS TO KEEP IVAN
> MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
> NOGAPS SOLUTION IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL
> FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE
> EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND A
> LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF GFS TRACK WHICH IS ALREADY TO THE LEFT OF
> THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF IVAN.
>
> I still don't understand why the tracking and the probabilities aren't
> correlating on NHC.
>
> --
> Alex McKenzie alex@boxchain.com http://www.boxchain.com
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Received on 09/14/04
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